In Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 12.04M head on Jan 1st, were up 0.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in December were 6.5% above a year ago, confirming large numbers of cattle moving off of dried-up pasture.
Read MoreDairy herd numbers plummeted 122,000 head or 1.3% in just 6 months – and tighter milk supplies are impacting prices. Butter that was still below $2.00/lb in early Dec has jumped to $2.7250 (1/14). Butter output in Nov was 9.6% below a year ago.
Read MoreGreen carbon initiatives have turned soy-oil into an energy commodity, and as such, its correlation to crude oil is undeniable. In 2021, soy-oil futures started the year at .4293/lb and hit a high of $.7208 on 6/8/21. Crude oil futures started 2021 at $47.62 per barrel before running up to $75.23 on 7/1/21.
Read MoreCovid, labor markets, supply chain issues and rising costs will continue to be ongoing issues in 2022. Current models show Covid cases peaking in late Jan, but then taking most of Feb/Mar to recede. That’s going to take a bite out of Q1 GDP, with growth now forecast in the 2-3% range – down from pre-Omicron forecasts of 5-6%.
Read MoreSanta’s sleigh was a little short on beef and pork for 2022. In Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said Nov cattle marketings were up 5.3% from a year ago, while new placements were up 3.6%, resulting in a Dec 1 feedlot inventory that was down 0.4% from a year ago.
Read More‘Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the White House, not a creature was stirring …….. OMG check his pulse. The Pres was just sleepy, there’s no need to worry, he’ll wake up to scold us and spend all our money. When up on the roof, there arose such a clatter, Joe sprang from his bed, to see what was the matter.
Read MoreLast week, the EPA proposed lowering ethanol blending mandates retroactively for 2020 & 2021, to better match decreased fuel usage, but to increase quotas for 2022. EPA’s proposal also increases biofuel blending to 2.76B gallons, up 14% from 2019/2020 levels.
Read MoreConcerns that the Omicron variant, and associated new travel restrictions, will put a dent in global oil usage sent West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plummeting from over $80 per barrel in November to $66.26 on Friday (12/3). Additionally, OPEC announced that it will expand oil production by 400,000 barrels per day (monthly) through January.
Read MoreWill there be any relief from high protein prices in 2022? Not likely in beef and pork, with the USDA forecasting output to decline by 3.5% and 0.3%, respectively, in 2022. But chicken is showing signs of recovery. Despite high feed prices, producers are putting up record profits and the industry looks to be gambling on expansion.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 11.95M head on Nov 1st, were down 0.2% from a year ago. New feedlot placements in October were 2.4% above 2020 levels. We are in the 3rd year of a liquidation and contraction cycle for cattle herds that is being compounded by poor pasture conditions.
Read MoreThe Biden Administration’s zero-carbon initiative has prompted plans for as many as 35 new biofuel plants coming online by 2024, with renewable diesel production forecast to jump from 60M gallons in 2020 to 5.1B gallons in 2024, consuming 65-75% of total U.S. soy-oil production.
Read MoreAt Oct’s Market Vision Conference, Eric Meyer from HighGround said a declining milk cow herd is curbing milk output. Dairy farmers culled 70,000 milk cows in Aug/Sept and Sept milk output was up just 0.2% from a year ago. Butter prices jumped $.12 over the past month to close at $1.9335/lb on 11/5.
Read MoreRising prices will affect us in so many ways in 2022. Here are some quotes from Market Vision’s Fall Conference. “Rising natural gas prices will escalate home heating costs by 30%, or roughly $200 per month, this winter.” (John Barone, Market Vision).
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 11.6M head on Oct 1st, were down 1.4% from a year ago. New feedlot placements in Sept were 2.9% below 2020 levels. We are in the 3rd year of a liquidation and contraction cycle for cattle herds that is being compounded by this year’s drought.
Read MoreThe U.S. milk cow herd has declined for 2 straight months, likely the result of higher feed prices. Milk yield per cow in Aug was down 1.3% from July and off 0.1% from a year ago. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA cut its 2021 milk production growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, and left 2022 unchanged at +1.2%.
Read MoreChicken supplies remain tight, and prices are historically high. But there may be a bit of light at the end of the chicken coop. Slaughter weights for July-Aug-Sept (13 weeks) were 1.25% above a year ago. That’s a good thing because the number of heads slaughtered was down 0.48% for the same period.
Read MoreThe USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report was a mixed bag for prices. Sept 1st corn stocks came in at 1.24B bushels - 69M bushels above pre-report expectations, but still 36% below year-ago levels. While slightly improved, overall corn supplies remain historically tight.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 11.23M head on Sept 1, were down 1.4% from a year ago, but still well above pre-report estimates. New feedlot placements in Aug were 2.3% above last year following 2.1% & 7.1% (yoy) declines, respectively, in July & June.
Read MoreAfter slashing 2021/22 corn yield from 179.5 to 174.6 bushels per acre (bpa) in July, the USDA reversed itself in its August WASDE report, raising yield to 176.3 bpa, and pegging corn output at 14.99B bushels. 2021/22 beginning stocks are 70M bushels higher based on lower ethanol use and smaller exports in 2020/21.
Read MoreOn Sept 11, 2001, radical Islamic terrorists took down both of the NYC Trade Towers. It was an unimaginable event. 2,977 lives were lost that day. Here in the NY Metro area, nearly everyone lost someone they knew personally. Every school system in the area had parents who were victims.
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