September 20

9/20 - After slashing 2021/22 corn yield from 179.5 to 174.6 bushels per acre (bpa) in July, the USDA reversed itself in its August WASDE report, raising yield to 176.3 bpa, and pegging corn output at 14.99B bushels. 2021/22 beginning stocks are 70M bushels higher based on lower ethanol use and smaller exports in 2020/21. 2021/22 ending stocks are 166M bushels higher at 1.4B. Despite good “finishing” rain, the corn crop hasn’t improved. Last week’s progress report showed just 58% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition vs. 64% a month ago and 71% a year ago. Corn futures had a lot of disaster potential built into pricing this summer that needed to unwind. Spot futures hit highs of $7.72 on 5/7 but have since dropped to $5.27 (9/17). The crop still stinks, but a drought-threatened disaster has been averted. The USDA cut its 2021/22 corn price forecast from $5.75 to $5.45/bu.