January 3

1/3 – Covid, labor markets, supply chain issues and rising costs will continue to be ongoing issues in 2022. Current models show Covid cases peaking in late Jan, but then taking most of Feb/Mar to recede. That’s going to take a bite out of Q1 GDP, with growth now forecast in the 2-3% range – down from pre-Omicron forecasts of 5-6%. A decent amount of consumer spending will be delayed from Q1 to Q2. But some, like sit-down restaurant spending, will be lost. For restaurants and suppliers, labor will continue to be the top issue to solve in 2022. There are currently 11M job openings in the U.S. and just 7.4M unemployed workers. A portion of the work-resistant can be lured back with the right wages and flexibility. But we are absolutely going to need some kind of support from Congress on additional visas for immigrant workers if we’re going to survive this year.