January 10

1/10 – Green carbon initiatives have turned soy-oil into an energy commodity, and as such, its correlation to crude oil is undeniable. In 2021, soy-oil futures started the year at .4293/lb and hit a high of $.7208 on 6/8/21. Crude oil futures started 2021 at $47.62 per barrel before running up to $75.23 on 7/1/21. Crude’s low of $65.57 (12/1/21) was matched by a $.5201 low in soy-oil on 12/14/21. Now crude is back up to $78.90 and soy-oil is $.5863 (1/7/22). The Omicron case wave is projected to peak in late Jan, then decline in Feb/Mar. Any Covid-related drag on travel should dissipate by spring, leading to greater fuel usage and potentially higher crude prices - unless OPEC opens the spigot on crude output. With soy-oil price increases currently lagging behind those for other oilseeds (palm, canola, sunflower seed), we could be looking at soy-oil in the low-to-mid $.60s/lb by April.