In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on March 1st were 11.84M head, down 2.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were down 17.7% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to “new world screwworm” disease.

Since the last trade war with China in 2017/2018, Brazil has increased its share of Chinese soybean imports from 62% to 71%, while U.S. share has declined from 30% to 22%. That’s mostly because of the strength of the U.S. dollar vs the Brazilian Real (making Brazilian soybeans cheaper) but also due to a Chinese shift away from reliance on the U.S. after the last tariff dust-up.

China’s retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect today. On the agricultural side, they include 15% on U.S. corn and wheat; 10% on soybeans. During the 2018/2019 trade war with China, U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, with losses estimated at $25B.

Here we go again. Barring a reprieve today, 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4 (tomorrow). Trump cited ongoing concerns about the influx of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl. Both Canada and Mexico are expected to respond with retaliatory measures.