John Barone's Weekly Update
In its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on March 1st (74.3M head) were 0.4% higher than a year ago but 1.5% below last quarter (Dec 1). A 0.6% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 2.1% jump in pigs per litter, offset by a 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd…
In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Mar 1st were 11.55M head, 0.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 3.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Feb were 6.8% below a year ago.
A big driver of soy-oil prices is biofuel demand. On 6/13/25, the EPA released a new Renewable Fuel Standard mandating a 2B gallon jump in renewable diesel production to 5.61B gallons in 2026. At that time, the EPA slashed the Renewable Identification Numbers on imported biofuel feedstocks…
War in the Middle East is never pretty for energy prices. Crude oil futures, which spent Jan/Feb in the $50s, are now over $90 per barrel. AAA says the U.S. average for regular gas has jumped from $2.90 to $3.41 per gallon over the past month; diesel from $3.65 to $4.51. The country is not in danger regarding oil supplies.
Commodity Prices & Forecasts
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