September 30

9/30 - In last week’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA said the U.S. hog inventory, at 76.5M head, is up 0.5% from a year ago. Producers continue to limit herd growth. Hogs being kept for breeding are down 2.2% from last year and farrowing intentions from now through May 2025 are projected to be flat. The June-Aug pig crop was down 0.8%, however, that should be offset by the number of pigs per litter, which was up 0.9% for June-Aug. Probably, the only surprising number in the report was the number of hogs in the heaviest 180+ lb category, up 4.8% from last year. In Aug’s WASDE report, the USDA forecast a 2.7% increase in pork output in 2024 that will be partially offset by a 5.2% increase in pork exports. Lean hog futures averaged $85.98/cwt for the 1st half of 2024 – up 6.2% from $80.96 a year earlier. Projected 2nd half 2024 futures are a bit tamer at $81.57/cwt – just 0.6% above 2nd half of 2023.