September 23

9/23 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.20M head, up 0.6% from a year ago. It was no surprise that new placements onto feedlots in August were down 1.4% following a 5.8% year-over-year increase in July. While supplies are adequate for current seasonal needs, the future is highly questionable. The U.S. cattle herd numbers are projected to be record low in 2025. So far, there are still no signs of herd expansion. If ranchers do decide to expand, figure in 9.5 months for gestation, plus another year-and-a-half to get a cow to slaughter weight. So, there’s not much chance for an increase in beef supplies before 2027. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA projected beef production declines of 0.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The USDA forecasts cattle prices will average a record-high $185.11/cwt in 2024, and then jump a bit higher to $186.00/cwt in 2025.