October 7

10/7 – On Friday, the Labor Dept reported that U.S. employers added 245,000 net new jobs in Sept, roughly double what was expected, and that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. The Labor Dept also said Aug job openings rose to 8M, the first increase since May. Just a week earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said U.S. Q2 GDP growth was 3.0%, almost double Q1’s 1.6% pace. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW model is currently projecting Q3 GDP growth at 2.8%. The S&P 500 hit another record high on Sept 30, and is now 69.8% above its pre-pandemic high. With a port strike narrowly averted, the inflation rate on the decline, and the U.S. economy running a little hotter than expected, the Fed could potentially pause on further rate decreases at its upcoming policy meeting on Nov 6-7. Note that an Israel/Iran conflict, and what war might do to oil prices and inflation, does threaten to spoil the party.