March 25

3/25 - In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Mar 1st were 11.83M head, up 1.3% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 9.7%, as producers recovered from harsh winter conditions that slowed placements in Jan. In March’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 2.4% drop in beef production for 2024, coming on top of a 4.7% decline in 2023. Speaking at the Market Vision Conference on Mar 15, David Weaber of Terrain said that the U.S. is at a cyclical low on replacement heifers, which means beef supplies will be tight for at least another 2 years. CME cattle futures bottomed seasonally at $162.35/cwt on 12/7/23, set another record high at $189.93 on 3/13, and closed at $187.50/cwt on Friday (3/22) - 15.5% above a year ago. Forward futures contracts for the first half of 2025 are averaging $190.65/cwt, roughly 4% higher than at projected $189.29 for the first half of 2024.