March 18

3/18 - At last week’s Market Vision Conference, Eric Meyer of HighGround Dairy said that replacement heifers are at a 20-year low and very expensive. As a result, no milk-cow herd growth is expected in 2024 despite lower feed prices. Jan milk production was 1.1% below a year ago and future milk supplies could have difficulty meeting any increase in demand. Jan all-cheese production was down 1.2%, and cheddar output down 7.9%, from a year ago. Block cheese prices (at $1.47/lb on 3/15) look to build toward highs in the $1.80s this fall. Butter in cold storage in Jan was 5.8% below a year ago. Lack of butter production capacity growth, and high cream demand for the trend back toward full-fat products, is putting the squeeze on cream supplies and butter prices. Butter (at $2.8725/lb on 3/15) should see some post-Easter, spring-flush lows near $2.60 before climbing to $3.00/lb or better pre-Thanksgiving.