April 1

4/1 – In last week’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA pegged total U.S. inventories on March 1 at 74.6M head, up 0.6% from a year ago. The market hog inventory at 68.6M head was up 0.8% from a year ago. The Dec-Feb pig crop was up 1.9% and pigs-per-litter up 4.6% from a year earlier. These numbers are mildly bearish for current hog prices. Looking forward, breeding inventory (6.0M head) was down 2.1% from last year and farrowing intentions are below year-ago levels for the balance of the year. In March’s WASDE report, the USDA projected a 2.2% increase in pork output for 2024 – but so far it’s looking like less pork and higher prices headed into 2025. Lean hog futures averaged $80.30/cwt in 2023, with July seasonal highs averaging $100.63. Futures contracts for 2024 are trading at $89.17/cwt, with July highs at $104.00. Hog futures closed at $86.62/cwt on Thursday (3/28) vs $77.75 a year ago.