In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast from 2.2% to 2.7% below a year ago. That comes on top of a 3.6% decline in beef output in 2025. The beef cattle herd is record small and the New World Screwworm threat appears to be growing.
Read MoreLast week’s jobs report was “meh”, with 57,000 net new jobs created in June and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.2%. The U.S. economy has averaged 92,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-June).
Read MoreIn last week’s quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on June 1st (73.66M head) were roughly even with a year ago and 0.4% below last quarter (March 1).
Read MoreIn last week’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on June 1st were 11.68M head, up 2.1% from a year ago. While new placements onto feedlots in May were 9.7% below last year, a plunge in cattle marketings, down 11.8%, allowed feedlot inventories to rise.
Read MoreLast week’s CPI report was not pretty. The consumer price index for May was 4.2% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was (again) the big driver in May, up 40.5%, while fuel oil (home heating oil and the same distillate as diesel) is up 58.9%.
Read MoreLast week, the USDA detected two separate cases (5.6 miles apart) of New World Screwworm (NWS) disease in Texas cattle, the first in the U.S. since the 1960s. NWS has been rampant south of the border, and the U.S. has been closed to Mexican cattle since Nov 2024.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.58M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were 5.5% above last year. Unfortunately, the reason for the increase was ranchers moving feeders off pasture and onto feedlots due to drought.
Read MoreIn last week’s WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026/27 soy-oil usage for biofuel at 17.8B pounds – 54.6% of total soy-oil production for the crop year. USDA also raised its 2025/26 projected soy-oil price from $.5900/lb to $.6300; and pegged 2026/27 at $.7000/lb. Soy-oil futures are being driven primarily by biofuel demand.
Read MoreFriday’s monthly jobs report was better than expected, with 115,000 net new jobs created in April and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.3%. The U.S. economy has averaged 63,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-Apr).
Read MoreTwenty percent of the world trade in liquid natural gas (LNG) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait blocked, natural gas futures in Europe are up over 40%, and in Asia it’s closer 80%. But here in the U.S., prices have plummeted.
Read MoreSpring planting season is here, but this year’s U.S. corn crop will likely incur some collateral damage from the war in Iran. Middle Eastern countries produce over 40% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea and ammonia-based fertilizers. Much of that production (like oil) is trapped in the Persian Gulf.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.58M head, down 0.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were 7.2% below last year. New world screwworm disease in Mexico continues to show no signs of abating.
Read MoreFriday’s CPI report may be the first hint of big trouble ahead. The consumer price index for March was 3.3% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was the big driver in March, up 18.9%. Taking out the food and fuel categories, the core CPI was up 2.6%.
Read MoreThe employment market is not dead yet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 178,000 net new jobs in March, after averaging just 17,000 per month for Jan/Feb. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.4 to 4.3%.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on March 1st (74.3M head) were 0.4% higher than a year ago but 1.5% below last quarter (Dec 1). A 0.6% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 2.1% jump in pigs per litter, offset by a 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd…
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Mar 1st were 11.55M head, 0.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 3.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Feb were 6.8% below a year ago.
Read MoreA big driver of soy-oil prices is biofuel demand. On 6/13/25, the EPA released a new Renewable Fuel Standard mandating a 2B gallon jump in renewable diesel production to 5.61B gallons in 2026. At that time, the EPA slashed the Renewable Identification Numbers on imported biofuel feedstocks…
Read MoreWar in the Middle East is never pretty for energy prices. Crude oil futures, which spent Jan/Feb in the $50s, are now over $90 per barrel. AAA says the U.S. average for regular gas has jumped from $2.90 to $3.41 per gallon over the past month; diesel from $3.65 to $4.51. The country is not in danger regarding oil supplies.
Read MoreAmidst the usual commodity doom and gloom, coffee could be a bright spot. Coffee futures prices (ICE Exchange) were $2.93/lb when 50% tariffs were imposed on Brazil in Aug 2025. That sent coffee soaring to a record-high of $4.32 by Nov.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Feb 1st were 11.51M head, 1.8% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Jan were down 4.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Jan were 13.0% below a year ago.
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