U.S. consumers have been lucky with fuel prices this year. Several Middle East truces, a sharp reduction in Chinese oil imports, and a generous pull from U.S. oil reserves have helped keep energy prices tame for most of the year. But the on-again, off-again war is on again, and the U.S. naval blockade of the Persian Gulf continues.
Read MoreTwo stats released last week should give business planners reason for pause. The first was the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which was 3.7% for July – far exceeding the 2% inflation target. Secondly, the U.S. federal debt level hit $40 trillion – up a staggering 73.9% from $23T in 2019.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 11.12M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in July were 11.0% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 7.4%. It’s a continuing saga of less available cattle and fewer cattle sold.
Read MoreLast week’s CPI report finally provided a little relief. July’s Consumer Price Index was up just 0.1% from June and is 3.4% above a year ago. Gasoline prices, while down 2.1% from June, are still 24.6% above a year ago, and fuel oil (home heating oil and the same distillate as diesel) is up 39.1%.
Read MoreFriday’s jobs report was a shocker. The U.S. lost a net 23,000 jobs in July – and employment numbers for May and June were revised lower. The economy has averaged 60,500 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-July).
Read MoreThe Federal Reserve chose to leave interest rates unchanged last week, despite calls to raise rates and get a better handle on inflation. With fuel prices elevated, there will be price pressure at every level of the supply chain.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on July 1st were 11.37M head, up 2.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in June were 2.9% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 2.7%.
Read MoreThe coffee market took a sharp bullish turn over the past month. Last year’s harvest had been plagued by weather-related crop losses in Brazil (Arabica) and Vietnam (Robusta), which tightened global inventories.
Read MoreIn Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast from 2.2% to 2.7% below a year ago. That comes on top of a 3.6% decline in beef output in 2025. The beef cattle herd is record small and the New World Screwworm threat appears to be growing.
Read MoreLast week’s jobs report was “meh”, with 57,000 net new jobs created in June and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.2%. The U.S. economy has averaged 92,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-June).
Read MoreIn last week’s quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on June 1st (73.66M head) were roughly even with a year ago and 0.4% below last quarter (March 1).
Read MoreIn last week’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on June 1st were 11.68M head, up 2.1% from a year ago. While new placements onto feedlots in May were 9.7% below last year, a plunge in cattle marketings, down 11.8%, allowed feedlot inventories to rise.
Read MoreLast week’s CPI report was not pretty. The consumer price index for May was 4.2% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was (again) the big driver in May, up 40.5%, while fuel oil (home heating oil and the same distillate as diesel) is up 58.9%.
Read MoreLast week, the USDA detected two separate cases (5.6 miles apart) of New World Screwworm (NWS) disease in Texas cattle, the first in the U.S. since the 1960s. NWS has been rampant south of the border, and the U.S. has been closed to Mexican cattle since Nov 2024.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.58M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were 5.5% above last year. Unfortunately, the reason for the increase was ranchers moving feeders off pasture and onto feedlots due to drought.
Read MoreIn last week’s WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026/27 soy-oil usage for biofuel at 17.8B pounds – 54.6% of total soy-oil production for the crop year. USDA also raised its 2025/26 projected soy-oil price from $.5900/lb to $.6300; and pegged 2026/27 at $.7000/lb. Soy-oil futures are being driven primarily by biofuel demand.
Read MoreFriday’s monthly jobs report was better than expected, with 115,000 net new jobs created in April and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.3%. The U.S. economy has averaged 63,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-Apr).
Read MoreTwenty percent of the world trade in liquid natural gas (LNG) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait blocked, natural gas futures in Europe are up over 40%, and in Asia it’s closer 80%. But here in the U.S., prices have plummeted.
Read MoreSpring planting season is here, but this year’s U.S. corn crop will likely incur some collateral damage from the war in Iran. Middle Eastern countries produce over 40% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea and ammonia-based fertilizers. Much of that production (like oil) is trapped in the Persian Gulf.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.58M head, down 0.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were 7.2% below last year. New world screwworm disease in Mexico continues to show no signs of abating.
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