With no government data available, the Federal Reserve was flying blind when it lowered the federal funds interest rate by ¼ percentage point in late Oct. The Fed is still blind, given delayed or incomplete CPI and unemployment data – but again it lowered rates by ¼ percentage point last week.
Read MoreThe country is literally awash in milk. October milk output was up 3.7% from a year ago - the 10th consecutive monthly increase and the 3rd straight month of more than 3%. Unfortunately, dairy market intelligence is scarce.
Read MoreAs mentioned last week, the President removed the remaining 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, which pre-tariff accounted for one-third of all U.S. supplies. While tariff removal should eventually be bearish for prices, coffee is not in free fall yet.
Read MoreIn its first cattle report in two months, USDA said feedlot inventories on Nov 1st were 11.71M head, 2.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct were down 10.0%. The cattle supply situation continues to deteriorate with no end in sight.
Read MoreOn Friday, Trump rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including coffee, beef, bananas, and orange juice. The new trade deals will eliminate tariffs on most food imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador. But don’t get too excited. Brazil is still the 800lb gorilla in the room,
Read MoreEgg prices (large) hit record highs earlier this year, averaging $8.26/dozen in February – then dropped steadily to a 2-year low of $1.69 in October. But don’t get lulled to sleep. Fall has arrived, birds are migrating, and avian flu is back in the news.
Read MoreLast week, the Federal Reserve (as expected) lowered its federal funds interest rate by ¼ percentage point. What was unexpected was that Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that another ¼ point cut in Dec was not a sure thing.
Read MoreOn Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a shutdown-delayed CPI report, showing a less-than-feared, 3.0% (year-over-year) increase in consumer prices. While the rate is a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, flagging U.S. job growth means that the Fed is likely to continue reducing interest rates –
Read MoreLast week the President said that his administration had “worked our magic” and struck a deal to bring down beef prices. We can only hope that this involves tariff reductions and/or quota increases on imported beef, particularly 90s lean beef trimmings from Brazil that are currently subject to a 76% levy.
Read MoreDespite the government shutdown, the USDA and the Energy Information Administration are still pumping out info. In last week’s Short Term Energy Report, the EIA forecast WTI crude oil prices will drop from an average of $76.60 per barrel in 2024, to $65.00 in 2025 and $49.00 in 2026.
Read MoreThe current U.S. government shutdown (that began on Oct 1) has resulted in the suspension or delay of many regular USDA pricing and survey reports. Market-sensitive reports and key statistical releases from agencies like the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Economic Research Service (ERS), and others are specifically affected, as non-essential staff are furloughed and data collection operations are paused.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report (9/25), the USDA said hog and pig inventories on Sept 1st (74.5M head) were up 1.0% from last quarter (June 1) but 1.3% from below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were down 1.4% from last year and the breeding herd was 1.8% lower. Farrowing intentions for the next half-year (Dec- May) are down 2.9%.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.08M head, 1.1% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Aug were down 9.9%. Mexican cattle imports have been banned from entering the U.S. since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreAfter peaking at 9% in June 2022 (CPI year-over-year), then falling to a low of 2.3% in April 2025, inflation is on the rise again. In last week’s CPI report, the August inflation rate (all goods) was up 2.9%, while core CPI (excludes food & energy) jumped to 3.1%.
Read MoreFriday’s monthly jobs report was abysmal. U.S. employers added just 22,000 net new jobs in August. Additionally, June figures were (again) revised lower to a negative 13,000. The employment economy had been in cruise control, adding 168,000 net new jobs per month in 2024 and 123,000 per month for the first 4 months of 2025.
Read MoreIt’s a possibility that every other weekly commentary is going to be about beef for the rest of the year. The situation is that dire. The southern border is shut to Mexican cattle imports due to “New World Screwworm” disease.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 10.92M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in July were down 6.1%. Mexican cattle imports have been mostly banned from entering the U.S. since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreAfter peaking at 9% in June 2022 (CPI year-over-year), then falling to a low of 2.3% in April, inflation appears to be on the rise again. In last week’s CPI report, the July inflation rate for all goods was steady at 2.7%, while core CPI (excludes food & energy) jumped to 3.1%.
Read MoreOn Aug 6, the U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, including coffee. As a result, coffee futures, which hit all-time record highs of $4.32/lb this past Feb, then slumped to $2.80 in early July, are now back over $3 per pound ($3.09 on 8/8).
Read MoreU.S. employers added just 73,000 net new jobs in July, while May and June job numbers were revised sharply lower. But with the unemployment rate at a historically low 4.2%, these are the kinds of job numbers many economists expected for 2025. It’s hard to continue to add new jobs in a full employment economy.
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