One big worry for economists trying to handicap Trump Administration initiatives is how tariffs, deportations, and potential tax cuts will affect consumer prices and overall inflation. Last week, the Consumer Price Index for January was reported up 3.0% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.4%) and shelter (+4.4) were two of the larger year-over-year increases (again).
Read MoreU.S. milk production was down 0.5% vs a year ago in Dec, following a 0.4% decline in Nov. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in California dairy cows is the main reason. Milk output in CA (20% of total U.S.) was down 8% in Nov/Dec vs a year ago. HPAI reduces a cow’s ability to produce milk - and milk from cows with HPAI must be taken off the market.
Read MoreOn Saturday, Feb 1, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. The most immediate effect on the restaurant industry, particularly at this time of year, will be on fruits and vegetables. The U.S. imported an estimated $22B+ in produce from Mexico last year. Tomatoes, avocados, cucumbers (pickles), jalapenos, bell peppers, and limes could present some of the biggest immediate cost issues.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Jan 1st were 11.82M head, down 0.9% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Dec were down 3.7%. Mexican feeder cattle imports were halted on 11/25/24 due to “new world screwworm.” The situation remains unresolved, which will leave the U.S. short roughly 300,000 feeders by Feb 1.
Read MoreDec’s Consumer Price Index was up 2.9% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.6%) and shelter (+4.6) were two of the larger year-over-year increases. On a monthly basis, gas prices in Dec were 4.4% higher than Nov, but still 3.4% below a year ago. The slight uptick in inflation comes on the heels of a robust jobs report.
Read MoreAvian flu appears to be rampant this winter. From a state of emergency in California (before the fires), to a reemergence in the Midwest in December, to new east coast outbreaks in North Carolina and Delaware, every flyway in the country is transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza or HPAI via wild bird migration. The egg industry is by far the most affected.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report on 12/23/24, the USDA said that total U.S. inventories of hogs & pigs on Dec 1st (75.8M head) were 0.5% above a year ago. Market-ready hogs were also up 0.5% and the breeding herd was marginally (0.1%) higher. The number of pigs per liter for the Sep-Nov quarter were record-high at 11.92, up 2.3% from a year earlier.
Read More‘Twas the night after Christmas, and down at Mar-a-Lago, the Donald was scarfing Big Macs and gelato. Vendettas were hung by the chimney with care, in hopes that indictments soon would be there. When up on the roof there was such a clatter, he sent Elon up to see what was the matter.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.98M head, down 0.3% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Nov were down 3.7%. With Mexican feeder cattle imports halted on 11/25 due to “new world screwworm,” placements are expected to drop further in coming months.
Read MoreLast week, Michael’s Foods (the country’s largest liquid egg supplier) announced that it lost 4.5M egg layers in Iowa, or 12% of their total capacity, to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza or HPAI. Michael’s is still recovering from losing 5.7M birds (14% of total) in May 2024 and 4.2M birds (10% of total) in Dec 2023.
Read MoreThe labor market bounced back in Nov, as workers sidelined by storms and strikes got back to work. The U.S. economy added 227,000 net new jobs in Nov, up from just 36,000 Oct. The unemployment rate (a separate survey) rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Read MoreIt was a great weekend to give thanks for our blessed lives - and to be grateful for being an American. We are coming off a hotly contested but peaceful election. Both election security and transparency reached new heights. That should go a long way toward convincing deniers that elections are legit.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Nov. 1st were 11.99M head, up slightly (+0.3%) from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct. were up 5.3%. The jump in placements likely indicates that producers are taking a pass this fall on hold back heifers for potential herd expansion in 2025.
Read MoreIn its November WASDE report, the USDA said the warm/dry late-season conditions helped cut this year's corn crop yield from 183.7 to 183.1 bushels per acre, which led to a drop in 2024/25 ending stocks from 2.00B to 1.94B bushels. As a result, the corn stocks-to-use ratio is down 0.4% - and forecasts for strong export sales suggest a potentially tighter stocks-to-use in 2025.
Read MoreIn early September, the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate by a half-point. This past Thursday, the Fed cut rates another quarter point. Conversely, since bottoming at 3.63% on Sept 16, the 10-year treasury yield has soared to 4.31% (11/8). Similarly, the national average for 30-year mortgages rose from 6.08% on Sept 19 to 6.79% last week.
Read MoreOn this election eve, Americans are anxious. According to an American Psychological Assoc. survey, 77% of adults feel stress over the future of the country; 75% think the election could spur violence; half worry about “the end of democracy.” According to a Sept survey from the Univ of Chicago’s Project on Security and Threats:
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Oct 1st were 11.6M head, unchanged from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Sept (down 1.9%) declined for the 2nd straight month, offsetting a 5.8% year-over-year increase in July. While supplies are adequate for current needs, the future is questionable.
Read MoreLast week’s USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook brought both good and bad news. First the good: USDA estimated that Q3 & Q4 beef production will be higher than previously expected, due to a faster pace of slaughter and higher carcass weights.
Read MoreWith beef prices sky-high, chicken is proliferating on menus across the country. That’s putting pressure on poultry producers to step up production more quickly. After struggling with breeder (rooster) fertility problems in 2022 & 2023, the industry finally appears to be turning the corner.
Read MoreOn Friday, the Labor Dept reported that U.S. employers added 245,000 net new jobs in Sept, roughly double what was expected, and that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. The Labor Dept also said Aug job openings rose to 8M, the first increase since May.
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