March 31

3/31 - In its quarterly report (3/27), the USDA said that U.S. inventories of hogs and pigs on March 1st (74.5M head) were down 1.7% from last quarter (12/1/24) and 0.2% below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were also down 0.2% from a year ago and the breeding herd was 0.6% lower. The number of pigs per liter for the Dec-Feb quarter were 11.65, up 1.0% from a year earlier. Farrowing intentions for the next half-year (Mar- Aug) are down 0.5%. The report was surprisingly bullish (for prices) and a reversal of last quarter’s bearish report. But it might not matter. Wednesday is “Liberation Day” and Mexico accounts for 40% of U.S. pork exports. Without a last minute reprieve, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico would slow U.S. exports and put a dent in domestic pork prices. Lean hog futures, at $86.70/cwt on 3/28, are averaging $85.28 ytd vs $79.03 in 2024. Forward futures for Apr-Dec 2025 are averaging $88.65 vs $86.92/cwt in 2024.