March 17

3/17 - Since the last trade war with China in 2017/2018, Brazil has increased its share of Chinese soybean imports from 62% to 71%, while U.S. share has declined from 30% to 22%. That’s mostly because of the strength of the U.S. dollar vs the Brazilian Real (making Brazilian soybeans cheaper) but also due to a Chinese shift away from reliance on the U.S. after the last tariff dust-up. Prices across the U.S. soybean complex have declined since mid-Feb, with soy-oil dropping from $.4730/lb to $.4100 (3/14). However, keep an eye on three potentially price-bullish factors: Soy-oil has been competitively priced vs palm oil in global trade and U.S. soy-oil exports have been strong. Secondly, in 2024, the U.S. imported 7.37B pounds of canola oil from Canada that is currently threatened by tariffs. Finally, used cooking oil imports from China, a feedstock for U.S. biofuel, are now 20% more tariff-expensive than they were a month ago.