On Friday, the U.S. finally reached a deal with Canada and Mexico to lift U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, while also confirming Canada and Mexico would remove tariffs on a wide range of U.S. goods, including pork and cheese.
Read MoreIn Friday’s WASDE, the USDA released its first projections for next year. The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower exports, and larger stocks. Wheat prices for 2019/20 are projected at $4.70/bu - down 9.6% from $5.20 for 2018/19.
Read MoreBeef middle meats and ground beef are in the midst of their annual seasonal price run-up ahead of the big 3 grilling holidays – Memorial Day (5/27), Father’s Day (6/16) and July 4th. So far this year, #180 choice boneless strips at $8.17/lb are up 54.7% after starting the year a $5.28 – and are currently 4.5% above a year ago.
Read MoreIn April’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA (again) dropped its first-half 2019 broiler output forecast to 21.16B pounds, now up just 0.4% from a year ago. Looking at Q1 data, the total number of (broiler) head slaughtered was up 0.3% from a year ago, while YOY slaughter weights were marginally negative.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in March were up 4.8% from a year ago. The April 1st feedlot inventory at 11.96M head was 2.0% above a year ago and the highest April inventory since the data series began in 1996.
Read MoreChina’s African Swine Fever just keeps going from bad to worse. On Thursday, Rabobank said that up to 200 million Chinese pigs could be culled or die as result of the disease. The drop would drag down China’s 2019 pork output by 30% from a year ago – a decline of 16 million metric tons.
Read MoreIt’s that time of year when refiners begin transitioning to more expensive, summer-grade fuel. This year’s seasonal price increases will get an extra boost as a result of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, rising crude oil prices and Midwest flooding that has impeded the production and distribution of ethanol.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA confirmed very large U.S. pork supplies. As of March 1st, total hog numbers and the market hog inventory were both up 2.1% from a year ago.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 2.2% from a year ago, surprising private analysts whose consensus forecast was for a 3.8% decrease. The March 1st feedlot inventory at 11.8M head was 0.7% above a year ago, while most agricultural economists had expected the first monthly decline since Dec 2016.
Read MoreIn last week’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA highlighted strong U.S. protein exports in 2018 driven by “domestic production increases and favorable foreign demand.” The USDA reported 2018 beef exports up 10.3%; pork +4.2%; broiler +4.1% and dairy products +9.5%. Eggs, down 6.1% and turkey -1.8% were the notable exceptions.
Read MoreIn Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA increased 2018/19 corn ending stocks by 100M bushels, based on a projected 25M bushel decrease in corn usage for ethanol and a 75M bushel reduction in corn export forecast.
Read MoreThe USDA’s annual cattle inventory report (originally scheduled for Jan 31) was released on Feb 28. The USDA said there were 94.8M head of cattle in the U.S. on Jan 1, up 0.5% from a year ago.
Read MoreThe USDA is just about back on schedule with reporting. In Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in Dec 2018 were down 1.8% vs. Dec 2017.
Read MoreIn the delayed Grain Stocks Report, the USDA raised 2018/19 soybean oil output due to increased crush and a higher oil extraction rate.
Read MoreThe USDA released a slew of data on Friday, including Feb’s WASDE report – the first in two months. The Jan WASDE was cancelled due to the gov’t shutdown.
Read MoreShutdown Update: The USDA is finally getting back on track and Feb 8 is looming as a big day. While Jan’s WASDE report will be skipped, Feb’s WASDE will be released on schedule this Friday.
Read MorePresident Trump reached a deal with congressional leaders on Friday to reopen the government for three weeks.
Read MoreThe Super Bowl match-up is set and just 2 weeks away. Congrats to the Rams and Patriots!
Read MoreThe U.S. economy was humming in 2018. Employers added 220,000 jobs/month (on average) in 2018, well above 2017’s 182,000 monthly pace.
Read MoreFrom a commodity standpoint, the U.S. government shutdown is a minor disaster. Unlike the 2013 shutdown, USDA AMS Market News is now an “essential” service.
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