December 9

12/9 - The labor market bounced back in Nov, as workers sidelined by storms and strikes got back to work. The U.S. economy added 227,000 net new jobs in Nov, up from just 36,000 Oct. The unemployment rate (a separate survey) rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings have now risen 4.5% from a year ago over the past 3 months, far outpacing avg inflation gains of 2.5% (CPI) over the same period. Still, there is a high level of uncertainty over the job market trajectory, with much depending on declining immigration levels and coming deportations. That uncertainty could complicate the Fed’s plans to lower interest rates in 2025, even though another quarter-point cut is very likely on Dec 18. The immigration surge is probably still boosting labor supply as asylum seekers await their court dates. But certainly by 2026, fully staffed restaurants may once again be a Covid-level problem for the industry.