September 25

9/25 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories were 11.34M head on Sept 1, down 2.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Aug were down 5.1%, and July marketings were down 6.0%. Beef cow herd numbers are at a 52-year low – with no signs that ranchers are planning to expand anytime soon. The number of beef replacement heifers in the mid-year inventory report was at a 50-year low of 4.05M head. The mid-year percentage of heifers in feedlots and headed to slaughter was a 22-year high of 39.9%. We may not see a significant increase in domestic beef supplies until 2027. In this month’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 4.8% drop in beef output for 2023, and a sharper 6.6% decline in 2024. CME cattle futures set another record of $187.07/cwt on Friday (9/22). Forward futures for 2024 are averaging $194.76 with a high of $199.00/cwt for April 2024.