October 2

10/2 – In last week’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report, the USDA pegged all hog and pig inventories at 74.3M head, up 0.3% from a year ago. It shows that producers have not yet trimmed herd numbers in response to large supplies and lower prices. They are trying, as indicated by the breeding herd being down 1.2% from last year. But for now, market ready hog numbers are up 0.4% and weights are higher across every category. Additionally, the number of pigs-per-litter from Jun-to-Aug was record-high at 11.61, up 4.3% from last year. Looking forward, Jun-to-Aug farrowings were down 3.7% and farrowing intentions for Sep-to-Nov are down 5.2% - indicators of potentially less pork coming for 2024. Lean hog futures are $80.20/cwt (9/29) vs. $89.45 a year ago. Jul-to-Sep 2023 hog futures averaged $86.00/cwt, down 5.4% from $90.92 in 2022. Except for bellies, pork prices look to be lower than last year in Q4.