May 15

5/15 - Friday’s WASDE report, which contained the USDA’s first estimates for 2024, provided good news, bad news, big assumptions, and a few surprises. Getting the bad news out of the way, the hard red winter wheat crop is in worse shape than previously thought because of drought and freeze damage – and all-wheat ending stocks will drop to 16-year lows. KC wheat futures ($8.91) have jumped roughly $1 per bushel in the past week. Even so, the USDA’s all-wheat price forecast for 2023/24 is $8.00, down from $8.85 in 2022/23. Beef production is forecast to decline by 8.1% in 2024, and cattle prices look to be record high at $172.00/cwt. On the good news side, the USDA is projecting record large corn and soybean crops this year, provided (big assumption) the summer weather cooperates. 2023/24 corn prices are projected to average a 3-year low of $4.80 per bushel, down from $6.60 in 2022/23.