November 27

11/27 – Consumers still crave beef but are increasingly forced to trade down from higher-priced beef cuts. That will keep demand for ground beef strong in 2024. On the supply side, beef and dairy cow herd numbers have declined, reducing fat and lean trimmings supplies. In Oct’s WASDE, the USDA forecast that beef imports (mostly lean 90s trim from Australia) will be up 7.8% for 2023 - but increase by just 1.0% in 2024. Currently, both retail and food service ground beef demand is at a near seasonal low, and that’s taken the edge off prices. Beef 50s trim, which averaged $1.92/lb in May/June 2023, has slumped to a 2½ year low of $.54/lb (11/24). Beef 90s, which averaged above $3.00/lb for Sept/Oct, are now $2.74. This might be as good as it gets. 90s could spend all of 2024 above $3.00, peaking around $3.50 in May. We’re forecasting 90s to average $3.25/lb in 2024, up 15.6% from a projected $2.81 for 2023.