November 20

11/20 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories were 11.74M head on Oct 1, up 1.7% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct were up 3.8%; Oct marketings were down 2.5%. The Oct 1st percentage of heifers in feedlots was a 22-year high of 40.0% – with no signs (so far) of ranchers retaining additional heifers for breeding. Producers continue to sell off both steers and heifers to both cash in on higher prices and to fill margin gaps that resulted from drought-reduced pasture and sky-high hay costs. In this month’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 4.8% drop in beef output for 2023, and an additional 4.2% decline in 2024. CME cattle futures set a record high of $187.07/cwt on 9/22 and closed seasonally lower at $175.75 on Friday (11/17). Forward futures for 2024 are averaging 2.3% higher than 2023 at $177.29. Looking out to 2025, the April contract is $188.10/cwt.