April 4

4/4 – In last week’s (3/30) quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the USDA said total herd inventories were down 2.3% vs. a year ago, while hogs kept for breeding declined 1.9%. Dec-Feb farrowing intentions were down 1.0%; Mar-May down 1.5%. The numbers were below pre-report expectations and bullish for prices. According to Dave Weaber of EMI Analytics (speaking at Market Vision’s Spring Conference on Apr 1st), higher labor, energy, feed, and operating expenses will increase total costs by 14.9% in 2022. However, stronger revenues should offset higher costs and lead to positive producer margins in 2022. In March’s WASDE, the USDA reported that pork production was down 2.2% in 2021 and is projected to decline by another 1.3% in 2022. Hog futures at $101.30/cwt (4/1) averaged $94.86 in Q1 vs. $81.53/cwt in 2021. Jun-Jul-Aug futures are averaging $119.94.