April 11

4/11 – If you were to judge by market reactions, traders did not put a lot of faith in Friday’s bearish (for prices) USDA WASDE report. In corn, the USDA left U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged and didn’t increase exports – while most analysts expected projected U.S. exports to jump due to a 16% (and growing) decrease in Ukrainian corn exports. Traders apparently believe the USDA is behind the curve and they bid up corn futures from $7.57 to $7.86 per bushel on Friday. By comparison, corn futures averaged $5.82 in 2021 and just $3.63/bu in 2020. In wheat, the USDA still expects Ukraine to export 19M tons and Russia 33M. The combined 52M is down from a pre-invasion export forecast of 59M tons – and optimistic compared to private forecasts for lower supplies. U.S. wheat remains too expensive for global trade at $10.51 per bushel, up from an average of $7.02 in 2021 and $5.49 in 2020.