September 6

9/6 – Ground beef prices are sky-high. Consumer demand at the retail and foodservice levels has been strong, plant capacity issues are ongoing and Australian imports have declined significantly. Aussie beef exports to the U.S. year-to-date (through Aug) are down 41% from 2020 and 45% below 2019 levels. Beef 90s trimmings at $2.79/lb are 22% above a year ago and 24% higher than in 2019. Beefs 50s trimmings at $1.43 are 240% above a year ago and 49% higher than 2019. Cattle herds are in the 3rd year of liquidation cycle that is being compounded by this year’s drought. In its Aug WASDE report, the USDA projected beef output in 2022 will decline by 3.2%. Trimming prices will drop seasonally through winter, but beef 90s look to average $2.60/lb in Q4 vs $2.01 in 2020 and $2.33 in 2019. Beef 50s are projected at $1.10/lb in Q4 vs $.41 in 2020 and $.68 in 2019.