May 17

5/17 - Last week’s WASDE report contained the USDA’s first look at commodity prices for 2022. Starting with grain prices, the USDA says corn (currently $6.85/bu) will average $5.70 for the 2021/22 crop year vs. $4.35 for 2020/21 and $3.56 in 2019/20. Soymeal (currently $423/ton) was projected at $400 in 2021/22 vs $405 in 2020/21 and $299 in 2019/20. That makes for a 2-year, 48% increase in feed prices. Soybean oil (currently $.6841/lb) is also on a sharply upward trajectory, forecast to average $.6500 in 2021/22 vs $.5500 in 2020/21 and $.2965 in 2019/20. Higher feed prices will affect poultry. The USDA’s 12-city broiler price, which averaged $.8860/lb in 2019, is forecast to be $.9270 in 2021 and $.9300 in 2022 (2020 doesn’t count). You can view a summary of USDA forecasts and historical numbers at https://www.mktvsn.com/s/51221-USDA-Forecast-Report.pdf