May 10

5/10 – Recapping Thursday’s interview with Hudson Riehle, the NRA’s chief economist, it’s no surprise that staffing is the #1 issue facing restaurant companies this year. Given that handicap, supply chain professionals were most interested in understanding how much pent-up demand is headed their way this spring/summer – and what comes after that. John Barone put Market Vision’s GDP forecast at 6.7% growth for 2021, breaking down to Q1: 6.4%; Q2: 8.2%; Q3: 7.0%; Q4: 5.0%. With consumer spending representing 2/3 of GDP, spending at restaurants should follow this pattern, with an early skew higher to reflect initial pent-up demand. So, expect restaurants to be packed through summer. But fiscal stimulus won’t last forever. First-half 2022 GDP will be limited to 3.5% growth; second-half 2022 3.1%; then back to pre-Covid GDP in the 2%-to-3% range for 2023/2024.