June 29

6/29 – In last week’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the USDA said inventories were 79.6M head on June 1, up 5.2% from a year ago. Market ready hog numbers were up 5.8%, while hogs kept for breeding declined 1.3%. COVID issues are baked into all of these numbers. The sharp drop in foodservice demand in Mar-Apr-May, combined with processing plant closures, led to a back-up in slaughter ready cattle. Hogs over 180 lbs were up 12.8% despite producers’ efforts to keep them on slow or -no-growth maintenance diets. This should mean large Q3 pork supplies. Not surprisingly, producers plan to cut back herd numbers. June-Aug farrowing intentions are down 4.6% from last year; Sept-Nov off by 5.4%. Hog futures prices, which opened 2020 at $71.55/cwt, plunged to lows of $37.33 in mid-April, rallied back to $68.80 (5/7), and have since slumped to $45.28 (6/26).