June 22

6/22 - In Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said the June 1st feedlot inventory rose to 11.67M head, up from 11.20M a month earlier. It was the 2nd largest June 1st inventory since the USDA began keeping that statistic in 1996. But the increase was due to the fact that cattle marketed from feedlots in May were down 27.5% from last year. Feedlots are full and slaughter-ready cattle were backed-up at the beginning of June. In the “Supply Chain Chat” webinar last week, Dhamu Thamodaran of Smithfield Foods said that meat plants are back up to 2019 output levels, with Saturday shifts making up for the slowdown in processing due to COVID safety protocol. Beef consumption was 14% below a year ago in April/May and is likely to slow further post-July 4th. Beef prices should see a classic summer slump. Exports might be the only bullish price factor for July/Aug.