October 5

10/5 - In the 9/25 Hogs and Pigs Report, the USDA said U.S. inventories on 9/1 were 79.1M head, up 0.7% a year ago but down 1% from June 1. Breeding inventory, at 6.3M head, was down 1.5% from last year. Market hog inventory, at 72.8M head, was up 0.8%. It’s been a difficult year and the numbers indicate that there has been some herd liquidation as well as producers exiting the industry. Covid upended the market in 2020. CME hog futures, prices that averaged $62.90/cwt in Q1, plunged to lows of $37.33 by mid-April. March through Aug hog futures averaged $53.59, down 30.9% from a year earlier. That squeezed profits and forced some shutdowns. But hog futures have since recovered to $74.50, mostly due to booming export demand. Flat to lower hog herd numbers in 2021 will eventually mean less pork, unless offset weight gains and increases in pigs per litter.