October 12

10/12 – Hot, dry weather has put a dent in both corn and wheat crops. In Friday’s WASDE, the USDA again downgraded its 2020/21 corn output numbers (by 178M bushels) to 14.72B, while reducing yield modestly to 178.4 bushels per acre. The USDA’s 2020/21 corn price forecast was increased from $3.50 to $3.60 per bushel. Corn futures, which were $3.07 in early Aug, have rallied over the past 2 months to close at $3.95 per bushel on Friday. The USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, higher domestic use and unchanged exports. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 42M bushels to 883M – a 6-year low. The USDA bumped its 2020/21 wheat estimate from $4.50 to $4.70 per bushel. Meanwhile, Chicago (soft red) wheat futures have soared over the past 2 months, from $4.91 to $5.93 per bushel; KC hard winter wheat from $4.14 to $5.35.