December 30

12/30 – In its quarterly (12/23) Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA pegged the Dec 1 inventory at 77.34M head, up 3.0% from Dec 2018. Market hogs (to be slaughtered from Dec-May) were 70.88M head, 3.1% higher than a year ago. The breeding herd (6.46M head) was 2.1% larger than last year. Those numbers point to record large pork supplies in 2020. In Dec’s Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, the USDA forecast a 3.6% jump in pork output for 2020 – coming on top of a 5.2% increase in 2019. That mountain of U.S. pork could be more than offset by China’s (ASF reduced) protein needs. China’s dwindling pork supplies are likely to be further depleted by Chinese New Year (Jan 25) celebrations. China recently dropped tariffs on U.S. pork imports. In Dec’s WASDE, the USDA projected 2020 U.S. exports up 12.8%, following a 7.1% increase in 2019.