December 16

12/16 – In last week’s WASDE, the USDA left 2019/20 corn output unchanged from its November report. However, only 92% of this year’s planted corn was harvested – and early snow/frost across the upper Midwest could keep that remaining 8% buried through winter. Declining corn supplies will be offset by softer demand. The USDA left its 2019/20 corn price forecast unchanged at $3.85/bushel. The USDA made no changes to its soybean oil balance sheet last week, following sharp reductions in the November report. China’s ASF has reduced demand for soymeal (as feed), subsequently reducing soybean crush and soy-oil output. Last month, the USDA cut soy-oil ending stocks to a 6-year low of 1.45B pounds. That’s a big drop from 1.99B just two years ago. Soy-oil futures have rebounded from 12-year lows of $.2634/lb in May to close at a 22-month high of $.3227 on 12/13.