January 6

1/6 - In its quarterly report on 12/23/24, the USDA said that total U.S. inventories of hogs & pigs on Dec 1st (75.8M head) were 0.5% above a year ago. Market-ready hogs were also up 0.5% and the breeding herd was marginally (0.1%) higher. The number of pigs per liter for the Sep-Nov quarter were record-high at 11.92, up 2.3% from a year earlier. Farrowing intentions for the next half-year (Dec- May) are up 1.3%. The combo of pigs per litter and farrowing intentions point to the potential for modest herd growth in 2025. Also bearish for prices is the fact that Mexico accounts for 40% of U.S. pork exports. Currently, we can only guess at how the North American tariff situation might play out. But retaliatory tariffs from Mexico would slow U.S. exports and put a dent in domestic pork prices. Lean hog futures are $80.77/cwt (1/3) vs $65.30 a year ago – and forward futures for 2025 are averaging $88.46 vs $84.95/cwt in 2024.