January 20

1/20 – Dec’s Consumer Price Index was up 2.9% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.6%) and shelter (+4.6) were two of the larger year-over-year increases. On a monthly basis, gas prices in Dec were 4.4% higher than Nov, but still 3.4% below a year ago. The slight uptick in inflation comes on the heels of a robust jobs report. U.S. employers added 256,000 net new jobs in Dec, on top of a 227,000 gain in Nov. The unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. New jobs totaled 2.23M for 2024, even better than the 1.99M pre-pandemic in 2019. The Fed was already in wait-and-see mode on interest rates due to the inflationary potential of tax cuts and tariff policy – and the CPI and job market further support that hesitancy. Meanwhile, Freddie Mac’s national average rate for 30-year mortgages jumped from 6.60% to 7.04% over the past 5 weeks. It looks like a battle between Trump and the Fed may be imminent.