September 9

9/9 – In Friday’s jobs report, the Labor Dept. said U.S. employers added a mediocre 142,000 net new jobs in Aug – and that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%. The good news is that nothing in the report will dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates at its next open committee meeting on Sept 17-18. The economy probably needs a half-point cut, but the Fed is likely to drop rates by just a quarter-point so as not to look partial or controversial ahead of the Nov election. Even better news for the restaurant industry is the unemployment rate, which has been on the rise since hitting bottom at 3.4% in April 2023. As long as consumers believe their jobs are safe, and as long as they can pay their monthly bills, they will try to maintain their lifestyles – and that includes restaurant spending. An unemployment rate of 4.5% might be time to start worrying, and anything above 5% is likely recessionary.