August 5

8/5 – Last week, the Labor Dept. said that U.S employers added just 114,000 net new jobs in July – and that the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%. New unemployment claims were 249,000 for the last week of July, compared to a 2-year average of 218,587 per week for 2022/2023. Stock markets are shaky. Since reaching highs in mid-July, the S&P 500 is down 5.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 10.0%. For most of last year, Market Vision had dismissed recession forecasts because the unemployment rate was below 4.0%. I have previously stated that 4.5% unemployment would probably be a good time to start worrying. We’re getting close. You can make the case that the restaurant industry is already in recession. Excluding the pandemic, the unemployment rate hasn’t been 4.3% or higher since Sept 2017. The Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates at their next meeting in Sept. Hopefully that’s not too late.