August 19

8/19 - Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been a bit subdued this summer but will likely pick-up this fall when wild birds start migrating again. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA again cut projected 2024 egg output, which has now declined from +1.0% to zero over the past two months. USDA also raised its 2024 forecast for NY large eggs from $1.98 per dozen (on average) to $2.71. Turkeys have been less affected by HPAI and are projected to average $.94/lb in 2024 and $1.05 in 2025, down from $1.40/lb in 2023. In June, milk output (down 1.0%) declined from a year ago for the 12th straight month. Both lower cow herd numbers and a 0.3% drop in productivity (milk per cow) were the underlying factors – and stirred speculation that HPAI may finally be affecting milk. The USDA projected that milk production, which was flat in 2023, will be flat again in 2024 and increase by just 0.8% in 2025.