July 22

7/22 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on July 1st were 11.30M head, up 0.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in June were down 6.8%, and marketings down 8.7% from a year ago. The report was near expectations and should be neutral to slightly bearish for cattle prices. The percentage of heifers on feed (and not being retained for breeding) increased from 38.5% on April 1st to 39.6% on July 1st – and remains nowhere near expansion levels. We are looking at maybe 2027 before we start seeing more beef. In July’s WASDE, the USDA projected beef production declines of 1.2% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The USDA projects cattle prices will average a record-high $186.86 in 2024 and jump even higher to $191.00/cwt in 2025. But cattle futures, currently at $183.10 (7/19), are averaging $182.84/cwt for 2024 and $183.79 for 2025 – both well below USDA forecasts.