May 20

5/20 – Tight beef supplies are a big problem for chain restaurant companies this year. The USDA is projecting beef production declines of 1.4% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025, and those come on top of a 4.7% decline in 2023. The USDA is forecasting cattle prices to average $188.00/cwt in 2025, up from a projected $183.51 in 2024 and $175.54 in 2023. Are prices high enough yet to encourage herd expansion? Drought had been a big problem for producers’ profitability. So far this year, pasture conditions (in general) are significantly better than a year ago - and economics favoring expansion are looking good. But so far there is little data showing any increase in the number of heifers being retained for breeding. It appears that our industry can only be “saved” by imports, particularly beef 90s trimmings imports. S. America has the product – but for now, U.S. import quotas are effectively blocking access to S. American 90s.