February 5

2/5 - In last week’s semi-annual cattle inventory report, the USDA pegged all cattle and calves in the U.S. on Jan 1st at 87.16M head, down 1.9% from a year ago. The all-beef inventory was down 2.5%, while dairy cow numbers were 0.4% lower than a year ago. The estimates were close to expectations, but it’s still hard to believe that this is the smallest USDA herd data since they began the survey in 1972, and the lowest according to private estimates going back to 1951. We are also at the back end of a herd liquidation phase where there are still a lot of heifers headed to slaughter. Once producers start holding back more heifers for breeding, slaughter numbers will be even further reduced. In January’s WASDE report, the USDA projected a 3.2% drop in beef production for 2024, coming on top of a 4.7% decline in 2023. Projecting forward from this report, beef output will likely drop another 3%-to-5% in 2025.