December 23

12/23 - In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.98M head, down 0.3% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Nov were down 3.7%. With Mexican feeder cattle imports halted on 11/25 due to “new world screwworm,” placements are expected to drop further in coming months. Cheap feed prices have helped producers grow cattle to higher weights and compensate for declining herd numbers. In Dec’s WASDE, the USDA projected beef output to increase by 0.3% in 2024. That’s a remarkable improvement from the USDA’s mid-year forecast for a 4.8% production decline. However, the USDA is still projecting a 5.1% decline in beef output for 2025. The USDA says cattle prices will average a record-high $186.68/cwt in 2024, and then jump a bit higher to $192.00/cwt in 2025. – Best wishes for the happiest of holidays from John Barone and the Market Vision team!