November 18

11/18 – In its November WASDE report, the USDA said the warm/dry late-season conditions helped cut this year's corn crop yield from 183.7 to 183.1 bushels per acre, which led to a drop in 2024/25 ending stocks from 2.00B to 1.94B bushels. As a result, the corn stocks-to-use ratio is down 0.4% - and forecasts for strong export sales suggest a potentially tighter stocks-to-use in 2025. At Market Vision’s Fall Conference (11/7), Brian Williams with Macquarie stressed keeping an eye on stocks-to-use as a forward price indicator. Williams also suggested that, in his opinion, it might be a good time for poultry producers to extend coverage on corn. Corn futures, which had hit 10-year highs of $8.18 per bushel in Aug 2022, were just $3.62 on 8/26/24 before rebounding to $4.24 (11/15/24). The USDA left its 2024/25 season average forecast unchanged at $4.10. Forward futures for 2025 are averaging $4.40 per bushel.