October 21

10/21 - Last week’s USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook brought both good and bad news. First the good: USDA estimated that Q3 & Q4 beef production will be higher than previously expected, due to a faster pace of slaughter and higher carcass weights. As a result, total beef output in 2024 is forecast to be 0.1% above 2023 levels vs. previous expectations for a decline. The beef import forecast was also revised higher. The bad news: part of that beef increase is due to a higher slaughter pace for dairy cows. As a result, the milk cow herd is projected to drop by 0.5% in 2024 and lead to a 0.2% decline in milk production. Next year, the beef/dairy situation is reversed. Milk, butter, and cheese production in 2025 look to be up, and prices a bit lower, than 2024. On the beef side, 2025 production looks to be down 4.0%, with imports remaining close to 2024 levels. That means another year (or 2, or 3) of sky-high beef prices.