January 15

1/15 - The consensus of 71 economists surveyed by the Wall St Journal is for 1.0% U.S. GDP growth in 2024, down from 2.6% in 2023. They put the probability of recession in 2024 at 39%, with Q2 and Q3 the most likely quarters to see negative growth. The economists project that unemployment will rise from 3.7% in Dec 2023, to 4.1% by mid-year 2024 and 4.3% by year’s end. On a more positive note, the EIA said that U.S. crude oil production, already record-high at 12.92M barrels per day (bpd) on average in 2023, will jump to 13.21M in 2024 and 13.44M bpd in 2025. Globally, oil supply looks to exceed demand by 500,000 bpd in Q1 2024 and keep a lid on oil prices. In addition to the U.S., more production from Brazil and Guyana will offset OPEC production cuts. The EIA says U.S. gasoline prices that averaged $3.97/gal in 2022, and dropped to $3.52 in 2023, are forecast to average $3.36 in 2024.