July 17

7/17 - The re-emergence of an El Niño weather pattern was supposed to bring more precipitation to the Midwest. So far, it’s been hit or miss. Timely rain has helped, but more is needed. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA said that “Two consecutive years of drought-affected Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat crops reduce HRW ending stocks to the lowest level in 16 years” - despite drops in both food use and exports. Drought is still an issue in Kansas even as it has been alleviated in other areas of the U.S. wheat/corn belt. HRW crop damage is reflected in the difference between Chicago wheat futures at $6.41 per bushel and KC (hard red) wheat futures at $8.09. Corn is also not out of the woods yet. Last week, the corn crop was rated 55% good to excellent vs 64% a year ago and the lowest for this time of year since 2012. Corn futures, which started the year at $6.70 per bushel and bottomed at $5.48 (7/5), has rebounded to $5.99 (7/14).