May 1

5/1 - In April’s WASDE report, the USDA projected whole turkey prices will average a record-high $1.71/lb for 2023, up from $1.54 in 2022. Those yearly average numbers are a bit misleading, given what has happened so far in 2023. Whole (16-22 lb) tom turkey prices, which peaked at $1.91/lb in Oct 2022, have been steadily declining and averaged $1.65 last week. Even more striking is that boneless skinless turkey breast, which was $6.70/lb for Oct/Nov 2022, has plummeted to $3.20/lb. Ongoing HPAI and hatching mortality issues indicate that turkey breast prices are undervalued in relation to whole birds, likely the result of substitution at both the retail and food service levels. Looking forward, the USDA’s whole bird forecast could end up closer to $1.80/lb for 2023, while turkey breast should average $3.75-$4.00, down from $5.93/lb in 2022, but still well above the pre-HPAI days in of $2.00 or less.