April 3

4/3 - Last week’s Hogs & Pigs report should be neutral-to-bearish for near-term hog prices, but more bullish for the 2nd half of the year. The USDA said all hogs and pigs in the U.S. on March 1 totaled 72.86M head, up just 0.2% from a year ago and down 2.1% from 3 months ago. The herd breaks down to 66.7M market hogs and 6.13M kept for breeding – just slightly above a year ago. There were 12.73M hogs in the heaviest, 180 lb+ category, 2.1% more than last year. That extra bulk will positively impact pork production in April/May and is depressing near-term prices. Hog futures at $75.25/cwt are down from highs of $89.10 in late Feb. Looking forward, 2023 farrowing intentions for Mar-May and Jun-Aug are down 1.2% and 2.9%, respectively, from a year ago - so there looks to be fewer hogs in the pipeline. Hog futures are averaging $93.37/cwt for summer 2023 (Jun-Jul-Aug).