March 13

3/13 – Following multiple years of drought, the transition from a La Nina to an El Nino weather pattern is expected to bring welcome precipitation to the Midwest corn belt this spring/summer. So far, the USDA hasn’t made any adjustments to its corn balance sheets. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA lowered 2022/23 corn exports by 75M bushels and raised ending stocks by the same amount. A strong U.S. dollar and South American competition are making it tough for U.S. corn to be competitive in global markets. The USDA cut its 2022/23 price forecast from $6.70 to $6.60/bu. However, the USDA’s first look at 2023/24 projects corn dropping to $5.60. Grain traders have been bearish in March, betting on better weather and a bigger crop. Corn futures that averaged $6.71 in Jan/Feb, have dropped to $6.24 (3/12). Forward contracts are averaging $5.94/bu for 2023 and $5.48 for 2024.