February 6

2/6 - A big boost to Q4 2022 broiler output has pushed Jan 1st (2023) cold storage supplies to 25.4% above a year ago. Producers were finally able to significantly increase output – but at a time when sky-high retail prices were turning off consumers and demand was falling. Breaking it down: wing inventories were up 11%; whole birds up 14%; leg quarters up 22%; and breast meat 63% higher than last year, albeit coming off 9-year lows to start 2022. Federally inspected ready-to-cook chicken output (total weight slaughtered) was up 7.1% in Q4 2022 vs. a year ago, and prices in early 2023 look to be a fraction of year-ago levels. For the first half of 2023, jumbo (unsized) boneless skinless breast is projected to average $1.50 per pound – roughly half of year ago levels. Wings look to average $1.10 vs. a little over $2.00 in H1 2022. Boneless skinless thighs should also be roughly $1.10 vs. $1.85 last year.