February 20

2/20 - Beef markets look to be quite challenging in 2023 and 2024. In Jan’s annual cattle inventory report, the USDA said that total U.S. cattle numbers were 3% below a year ago and the lowest since 1962. The USDA expects beef production for 2023 to be 6.3% below a year ago. Looking ahead, a developing El Nino weather pattern should bring more moisture this spring to both crops and grazing pasture. That would help on the cost side of the cattle equation. If producers have the financial incentive to expand, a 2023 spring-born heifer calf (if retained) would first calve in 2024, and that offspring wouldn’t be available for slaughter until 2025. With beef replacement heifers currently at a 12-year low, food service will need a lot of help from cheaper chicken/pork at the retail level to take pressure off demand, and from Australian beef imports – particularly lean beef (90s) trimmings – to bolster ground beef supplies.